Assessment of Cloud-based AI Activity and Anticipated HPC User Benefits

According to a recent Hyperion Research study of 135 US quantum computing (QC) technology developers across the academic, commercial, and government sectors, selected financial indicators in the QC commercial sector have yet to settle into any easily characterized profile. For example, Hyperion Research estimates that while more than one third of the reporting QC suppliers in the survey had revenues of five million dollars or more in 2019, almost half that supplied revenue figures had revenues of less than $500 thousand or no sales in 2019. Likewise, survey respondents indicated that the appropriateness of QC R&D funding differ greatly across the corporate, government, and VC spaces, citing a need for more government funding while expressing concern that current VC funding for the sector may be excessive. Finally, when asked about a potential quantum winter, QC suppliers were much more pessimistic than the base of current and potential QC users, with about half of QC suppliers believing a quantum winter is somewhat or highly likely in the next decade, twice that of counterpart QC end users.

According to a recent Hyperion Research study of 115 current and interested QC end-users from both HPC and enterprise IT organizations, the average budget of surveyed QC buyers/users, worth about $3.2 million in 2019, will grow at a 27% CAGR between 2019 and 2024. This growth includes follow-on budget commitments from existing QC users as well as new budget commitments from a tranche of survey respondents who are currently only considering QC involvement. However, the number of organizations that are not yet certain of budget timetables over the next four years remains relatively constant at about 15% of those surveyed. A strong anticipated growth rate in QC end-user budgets implies high expectations for QC developments that can support adequate return on investment or sector-relevant competitive advantage. Current and potential QC users likely will be looking for QC suppliers to roll out a series of steady technological and use case advances that provide assurance that the QC sector is successfully moving to achieve stability, reducing the risk of being an early adopter.