Assessment of Cloud-based AI Activity and Anticipated HPC User Benefits

Hyperion Research projects that between 2021 and 2026, worldwide installations of leading-edge exascale and near-exascale systems will total 28-38 new systems, worth an estimated $10-$15 billion, with China, the EU, and the United States each fielding 7 -10 systems in the six year interval. Being an exascale trailblazer can be expensive, with systems on the near horizon costing upwards of $500 million or more each, and only the most ambitious governments can commit to participating in these early rounds of exascale progress. However, as HPC price/performance moderates, a long-verified phenomenon in the HPC space, additional nations will also be looking to provide their domestic R&D base with access to exascale-class HPCs either developed domestically or procured from foreign sources.

The HPC market is experiencing many challenges and opportunities from the covid-19 virus and its resulting economic impacts. In July 2020, the situation appeared bleak, with a potential for 2020 HPC server revenues being down by as much as 20% year on year. More recently, surveys show an improved outlook, although still with a market contraction of approximately 14% compared with 2019. The Workgroup segment is bearing the near-term brunt of the downside impact.

Covid-related HPC investment impacts are not equally distributed across the vertical markets; several segments are already experiencing increased HPC investments. These include bio/life sciences and government labs. At the same time other verticals are facing a greater negative impact, including oil & gas, manufacturing, and DCC/content distribution