A Thought Experiment on Accelerated HPC Cloud Growth

Hyperion Research projects that between 2021 and 2026, worldwide installations of leading-edge exascale and near-exascale systems will total 28-38 new systems, worth an estimated $10-$15 billion, with China, the EU, and the United States each fielding 7 -10 systems in the six year interval. Being an exascale trailblazer can be expensive, with systems on the near horizon costing upwards of $500 million or more each, and only the most ambitious governments can commit to participating in these early rounds of exascale progress. However, as HPC price/performance moderates, a long-verified phenomenon in the HPC space, additional nations will also be looking to provide their domestic R&D base with access to exascale-class HPCs either developed domestically or procured from foreign sources.

A review of the number of quantum communications (QComm) research papers published over the last five years shows that QComm basic science as well as R&D efforts are centered within China, with the US a distant second and perhaps falling further behind. Most other nations are publishing a steady, but smaller stream of QComm-related publications well behind what China is producing.